Bitcoin Surges Above $20K, But Is It Too Early to Bet on a Bull Run?

• Bitcoin’s impressive rally has seen it surpass the 200-Day Moving Average and Realized Price, both of which sit just under $20,000.
• Momentum in new addresses has seen the 30-day simple moving average (SMA) recently jump above the 200-day SMA, a shift which is often seen at the start of a Bitcoin bull market.
• Glassnode’s Revenue From Fees Multiple still has a negative 2-year Z-score of around -0.41, suggesting it may still be too early to bet on a Bitcoin bull run.

The recent surge in Bitcoin’s price has caught the attention of many investors and traders, who are now eagerly monitoring the cryptocurrency’s progress. After falling to levels below $17,000 in December of 2022, Bitcoin has since recovered, surpassing the $21,000 mark and breaking back to the north of its 200-Day Moving Average and Realized Price, both of which sit just under $20,000.

This impressive rally has also been accompanied by a surge in new addresses, with the 30-day simple moving average (SMA) recently jumping above the 200-day SMA. This shift, which often occurs at the start of a Bitcoin bull market, has been viewed as a positive sign by many traders and analysts.

Additionally, Bitcoin appears to be tracking almost exactly in line with a long-term market cycle that repeats itself roughly every four years. According to analysis from the pseudonymous Twitter account @CryptoHornHairs, Bitcoin is at the beginning of the bullish stage of the cycle, having just come through a 364-day downturn.

However, investors should be aware that one key on-chain indicator is not sending bullish signs. Glassnode’s Revenue From Fees Multiple still has a negative 2-year Z-score of around -0.41. The Z-score is the number of standard deviations above or below the mean of a data sample. In this instance, Glassnode’s Z-score is the number of standard deviations above or below the mean Bitcoin Fee Revenue of the last 2-years.

The lack of an uptick in fee revenue as a proportion of the total reward indicates that Bitcoin blocks are not yet full, and that there is still not enough demand for transaction activity to trigger a sustained bullish run. Therefore, it could still be too early to place bets on a Bitcoin bull run.

That being said, it’s important to note that these indicators are not always accurate. As the cryptocurrency market is still relatively new, there is always the potential for sudden changes in sentiment that could trigger a rapid surge in prices. Therefore, it’s important to do your own research and to make informed investments.

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